CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs bond1e (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Closed Qualifier Play-In
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa1f8c662fa5ee967fbb37529347181f4073de25b2b962670a496bf3e9a3debe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HyperSpiritof HyperSpirit, bond1e
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked bond1e | 45c | 3,455$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.15 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked HyperSpirit | 55c | 3,002$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.99 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked bond1e | 42c | 2,797$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.51 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked HyperSpirit | 55c | 2,442$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.88 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…9407backed HyperSpirit | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd6…e33abacked bond1e | 50c | 962.47$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…bcfebacked HyperSpirit | 71c | 819.46$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.97 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed bond1e | 32c | 627.83$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed HyperSpirit | 55c | 595.01$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.76 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked bond1e | 43c | 588.46$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.29 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked HyperSpirit | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 172 | 40.1%69 W · 103 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed HyperSpirit | 63c | 468.91$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.26 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed HyperSpirit | 58c | 310.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed bond1e | 36c | 294.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked bond1e | 64c | 228.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed bond1e | 42c | 202.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed HyperSpirit | 58c | 181.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed bond1e | 47c | 174.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed bond1e | 48c | 167.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc4…a03fbacked bond1e | 23c | 161.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HyperSpirit | 52c | 156.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed bond1e | 50c | 144.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed bond1e | 50c | 144.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed HyperSpirit | 55c | 142.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked bond1e | 45c | 141.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed HyperSpirit | 68c | 139.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…8483backed HyperSpirit | 71c | 138.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 110 | 61.8%68 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed bond1e | 43c | 125.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked HyperSpirit | 60c | 122.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed bond1e | 45c | 122.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked bond1e | 30c | 103.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked bond1e | 45c | 102.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…a301backed bond1e | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed bond1e | 28c | 99.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 321 | 38.3%123 W · 198 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed HyperSpirit | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed bond1e | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed bond1e | 50c | 95.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0da…f1d8backed bond1e | 32c | 91.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…f736backed bond1e | 50c | 86.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked bond1e | 45c | 83.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed HyperSpirit | 55c | 74.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 226 | 50%113 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked bond1e | 47c | 70.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed HyperSpirit | 25c | 70.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed bond1e | 33c | 69.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…3223backed HyperSpirit | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7489…7c83backed bond1e | 35c | 64.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b1aebacked HyperSpirit | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed bond1e | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 293 | 47.8%140 W · 153 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed bond1e | 36c | 49.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed HyperSpirit | 51c | 49.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed bond1e | 31c | 45.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed bond1e | 43c | 43.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed HyperSpirit | 68c | 40.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed bond1e | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed HyperSpirit | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed HyperSpirit | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked HyperSpirit | 52c | 39.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed bond1e | 34c | 37.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked HyperSpirit | 52c | 36.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed bond1e | 41c | 35.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed bond1e | 49c | 34.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked HyperSpirit | 51c | 34.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked HyperSpirit | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked HyperSpirit | 54c | 31.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…a124backed HyperSpirit | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed HyperSpirit | 52c | 29.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed HyperSpirit | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…1081backed HyperSpirit | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…9194backed bond1e | 46c | 26.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked HyperSpirit | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked HyperSpirit | 53c | 23.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked HyperSpirit | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed HyperSpirit | 52c | 19.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d7…8330backed HyperSpirit | 71c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.