TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cc6…9df6backed Yes28c23,043$6,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,494.911526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No72c8,425$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,098.969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed No70c7,500$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No73c6,968$5,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,095.0675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes34c6,655$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,425.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No72c6,192$4,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,458.429455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes41c3,154$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.442,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes27c3,132$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.1333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16011354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No73c2,492$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.211,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No72c2,097$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.6335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No11c1,796$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1122332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked No71c1,675$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.243748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No15c1,571$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4949143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Yes36c1,390$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.453066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No49c1,317$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.561,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes28c1,200$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8645425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes34c1,176$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.472339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed Yes9c1,000$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9104734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No72c847.15$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.451,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No15c832$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No75c829.02$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.6419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No71c818.79$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.3456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes14c714.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.2924132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed Yes17c626.68$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.682540%10 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+58.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No71c601.99$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4230054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a35…5e52backed Yes37c547.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No73c513.43$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.1962452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No72c500.57$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.4163645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…dea4backed No22c441.08$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf24…15ecbacked No65c348$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.25056%28 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed No74c338$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.127057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes24c303.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.4720436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes29c303.45$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.4538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Yes29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2137439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked No72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked No72c299.97$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.985455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.126159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Yes36c278.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.33742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed Yes14c214.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+108.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x23de…05c1backed Yes28c210.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.591931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6684…2985backed Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes5c200$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1904240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14610946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1404219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.318246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37eb…6bf7backed No75c191.59$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked No71c180$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.811543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0abd…7207backed No15c179.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.573458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c34…dfafbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.571526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ff…9aaabacked Yes29c172.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.413253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65f2…c6f5backed Yes29c172.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes8c167.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5380…ddb2backed Yes12c167$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1471163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed No73c164.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7310943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes34c158.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.657463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No30c145.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.918541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Yes14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.865742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No76c135.62$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5678248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3798…2e72backed Yes13c131.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.171838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No72c125.86$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2419446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes30c122.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.665038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb7…391ebacked Yes53c120.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.464187.8%36 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.22per pick66cpaid+50.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes10c114.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick33cpaid+180.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes12c104.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7514934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.458258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a33…237dbacked Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.453351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647639.5%30 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes58c99.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9511644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…b45fbacked Yes29c96.55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes15c96.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.096936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes29c93.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.111952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d6…b98cbacked Yes27c92.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+88.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ea…c293backed No59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96d…cf14backed Yes29c86.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b4…f6d1backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.331450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+231.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+164.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No60c74.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4339857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes29c72.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.411233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…843bbacked Yes29c71.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.951233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46cb…08debacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9715854.4%86 W · 72 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb653…f400backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.972050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed No73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No70c67.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.315064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed No73c64.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3130%0 W · 3 L-2.3wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.523426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c47…8d6dbacked Yes18c58.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+185%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No76c58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.089476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed No73c56.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9310262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Yes28c53.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.577834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.