Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa884b5e4bbf4acd6c236592d6ece2f859721787f17ce3e1427985bd39783d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcffc…172bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,317$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 79c | 938.36$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.04 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 551.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 79c | 407.03$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked No | 10c | 300.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 21c | 274.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 71c | 267.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 54c | 260$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 240.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 48c | 236.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 213.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 33c | 205.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 205$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 79c | 183.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 166.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 54c | 155$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 130.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 110.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 106.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 63c | 100.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1373…a9adbacked No | 36c | 100.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 98.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 98.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 39c | 78.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 45c | 73.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 65.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 55c | 63.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 60c | 57.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 19c | 51.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 51.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 48.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed Yes | 50c | 32.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 66c | 31.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 30.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 23.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…cdc9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.