TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,070 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdfc…bf06backed No53c4,987$2,636 inWon+$2,350.56651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes47c3,408$1,602 inLost-$1,601.763,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes48c1,012$486 inLost-$486.131,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked No71c692.59$493 inWon+$199.255,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Yes30c637$193 inLost-$193.41,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes46c455$209 inLost-$209.31,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes48c307.99$147 inLost-$146.772,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Yes47c268.35$127 inLost-$126.9520845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed No47c264$124 inWon+$139.9232652.5%171 W · 155 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No51c254$129 inWon+$125.042,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No53c225.85$120 inWon+$105.618,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes53c192$102 inLost-$101.7617652.8%93 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked No52c125$65 inWon+$609450%47 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No52c125$65 inWon+$605457.4%31 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffd…3ef3backed No55c72.73$40 inWon+$32.738558.8%50 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes32c56.46$18 inLost-$18.183,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a6b…abbfbacked No54c45.44$25 inWon+$20.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8675…725dbacked No52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.464067.5%27 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes45c36.36$16 inLost-$16.3677647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes45c36.36$16 inLost-$16.365,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes31c36.13$11 inLost-$11.21,01350.3%510 W · 503 L+51.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes49c33.27$16 inLost-$16.319356.5%109 W · 84 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes36c33$12 inLost-$11.8577752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes48c23.99$11 inLost-$11.412140.5%49 W · 72 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x432d…a2d4backed No73c20.67$15 inWon+$5.67785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.