MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94caa9d994985f3035f0320a45cbc3496528a86eeb07e1db73011f9167fc125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…10f5backed Under | 48c | 615.99$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 48c | 584.17$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.48 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 47c | 564.84$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.42 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 51c | 418$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 389.4$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 241.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Over | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…63afbacked Under | 47c | 205.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 48c | 187.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 53c | 153.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 118.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 27c | 110.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…146abacked Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 52c | 36.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.