MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6194afd4542bb2375fe010fcbbb1eed4b3981208bbede8286eef063f66e764b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 1,188$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.43 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 1,137$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.05 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 757$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.62 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 750$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 700$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 668$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 534.63$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.51 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 511.24$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.24 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 239$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 230$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 204$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 190.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 182$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 130.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 106.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 74.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 55.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 39.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 26.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.