Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa9218ba9a9e0b1afe3e50566ec57e721c89f26837cf7835a5929f04d562b5e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 641.37$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Under | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +230.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 5c | 521$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 31c | 284.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 41c | 228.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Over | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 32c | 215.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Under | 14c | 178.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…2715backed Over | 51c | 103.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 91.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 66c | 73.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed Over | 48c | 72.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 34c | 66.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 63.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 70c | 55.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: FC Alverca O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: Sporting CP 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Sporting CP vs. FC Alverca: Sporting CP O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)Sporting CP won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.