TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Other European Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
FC Alvercaof Sporting CP, FC Alverca
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,067 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe020…f39bbacked FC Alverca65c1,483$964 inWon+$519.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Sporting CP37c1,455$532 inLost-$532.172,01235.5%714 W · 1,298 L-27.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Sporting CP26c1,233$318 inLost-$317.822,00136.5%730 W · 1,271 L-25.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Alverca73c1,150$838 inWon+$311.527,88945.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L+11.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed FC Alverca5c549.4$27 inWon+$521.932,64035.7%942 W · 1,698 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Sporting CP35c100.94$35 inLost-$35.4473440.1%294 W · 440 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked FC Alverca43c92.52$40 inWon+$52.8646044.3%204 W · 256 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FC Alverca44c74$33 inWon+$41.4423347.2%110 W · 123 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sporting CP72c70$51 inLost-$50.6863849.5%316 W · 322 L+26.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FC Alverca64c69.21$44 inWon+$24.972,06848.1%995 W · 1,073 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Sporting CP64c60.12$38 inLost-$38.365743.9%25 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Sporting CP35c39.33$14 inLost-$13.7711837.3%44 W · 74 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Sporting CP46c35.27$16 inLost-$16.192281.8%18 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed FC Alverca75c25.77$19 inWon+$6.4432257.8%186 W · 136 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed FC Alverca75c25.76$19 inWon+$6.4455954.9%307 W · 252 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Alverca64c23$15 inWon+$8.2887745.2%396 W · 481 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed FC Alverca75c22$17 inWon+$5.524466%161 W · 83 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed FC Alverca75c13.47$10 inWon+$3.3735163.5%223 W · 128 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.