Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaaf35936ef23756ce5e7501130309ece8b4deb5598ac7af187515532d5bb937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 1,412$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 15c | 999.65$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 77c | 856.52$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.73 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…3e1abacked No | 2c | 842.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 14c | 603$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 76c | 570$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…08e9backed No | 20c | 511.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 20c | 471.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 12c | 367.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…c008backed No | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed No | 24c | 203.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…7cb0backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 8c | 169.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3035…1f37backed Yes | 80c | 163.57$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…9ac8backed No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 18c | 112.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 78c | 109.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c0…ee80backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…caf7backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…7c07backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 71c | 97.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d59…b402backed Yes | 79c | 91.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 80c | 78.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…7a65backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…c4bfbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 77c | 27.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…3192backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 72c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 5?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.