Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaabfe4077c320da2bd30a382c6ac6ac3da8eedb1acecff34456c4c2f1c6401f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Virtus.pro, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,841 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c45…0ac6backed Virtus.pro | 12c | 16,667$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 3,839$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Spirit | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 1,435$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.11 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…3de2backed Team Spirit | 74c | 1,355$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 1,097$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus.pro | 22c | 617.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…020dbacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 444.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Virtus.pro | 11c | 401.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 270.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 245.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Team Spirit | 66c | 232.86$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…e790backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 178.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro | 11c | 174.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Team Spirit | 68c | 153.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 146.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Spirit | 74c | 131.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 116.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Team Spirit | 76c | 112.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…38e7backed Team Spirit | 75c | 105.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…02bbbacked Team Spirit | 65c | 103.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…2f04backed Team Spirit | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed Team Spirit | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked Virtus.pro | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Team Spirit | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Virtus.pro | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 67.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Team Spirit | 73c | 59.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 57.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8c…db83backed Team Spirit | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…5c9fbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 43.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Team Spirit | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Virtus.pro | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…d9e3backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Team Spirit | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…ad3fbacked Virtus.pro | 37c | 34.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Team Spirit | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…612dbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…9436backed Team Spirit | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…3656backed Team Spirit | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.