TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Virtus.pro, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,573 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Virtus.pro24c51,605$12,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,330.9854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Spirit73c15,237$11,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,068.3422954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Spirit78c9,000$6,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.4686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Spirit74c7,358$5,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.156349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Team Spirit76c5,032$3,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.636160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Spirit73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Virtus.pro26c4,757$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.856150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Spirit75c4,441$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.3713045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro1c3,691$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.42,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Spirit76c3,647$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.9722842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Virtus.pro25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62556542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Spirit74c2,400$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61814854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit75c2,134$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.811,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Virtus.pro2c2,049$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7344149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit77c1,906$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.521,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Team Spirit75c1,845$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.4528145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Virtus.pro19c1,745$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2118746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Virtus.pro25c1,727$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.51,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit77c1,517$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.771,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Team Spirit74c1,434$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.7118954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit74c1,371$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.9846649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Virtus.pro16c1,290$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.884452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Virtus.pro23c1,249$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.627231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Virtus.pro26c1,184$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Team Spirit74c1,054$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.4528062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Virtus.pro28c1,007$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Virtus.pro21c967.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Virtus.pro10c945.96$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.383438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Team Spirit77c764.42$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7118745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro3c750$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.46132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Team Spirit75c705.51$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3812661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Virtus.pro4c609.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3722363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Virtus.pro28c536.3$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Virtus.pro25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12517133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Virtus.pro3c499.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit76c494.43$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.351,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Virtus.pro28c478.5$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.982343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Spirit75c470.81$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8328544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit75c469.78$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2472035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit76c456.94$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.12,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit78c399.79$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.811,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Team Spirit74c394$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4412454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Virtus.pro26c382.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2512638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…4fa3backed Team Spirit72c377$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.563151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Team Spirit73c364.84$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8415545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Virtus.pro28c350.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.616945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro14c330.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.11,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Virtus.pro30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Virtus.pro26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Virtus.pro21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6356243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed Team Spirit75c289$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.252864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+60.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Team Spirit73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9734860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtus.pro25c260.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Spirit78c257.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1320367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Team Spirit75c239$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.758035%28 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Spirit72c229.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.461548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Virtus.pro22c207.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6316725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92de…87eebacked Virtus.pro27c205.37$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Virtus.pro23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit73c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5348352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Team Spirit73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548844.3%39 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit74c178.17$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.622,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Virtus.pro24c155.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.681,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit74c147.44$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked Team Spirit74c141.89$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.892934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked Team Spirit74c135.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.234065%26 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf0…82b4backed Team Spirit74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142568%17 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x908b…247cbacked Team Spirit75c131.04$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.768254.9%45 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Virtus.pro28c125.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3559556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Spirit74c116.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2847951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Spirit73c114$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7828549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa77…bf95backed Virtus.pro27c111.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6225953.3%138 W · 121 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Team Spirit72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Spirit72c99.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2845457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Virtus.pro28c77.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.656548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked Team Spirit75c74.8$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Team Spirit74c67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.427159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Team Spirit75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6724955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Team Spirit74c55.4$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.415653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…c84dbacked Team Spirit72c53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.84955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Team Spirit74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Virtus.pro25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4466848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b4…748abacked Virtus.pro24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213026.2%34 W · 96 L-15.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Spirit75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Virtus.pro27c49.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Virtus.pro27c45.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.111,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Virtus.pro27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1515450%77 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Team Spirit74c41.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.796055%33 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…b54abacked Virtus.pro25c40.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.242944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…b6d5backed Team Spirit74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.421055.2%116 W · 94 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Team Spirit74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.412568%85 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Virtus.pro27c39.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7944645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8057…b7f1backed Virtus.pro27c39.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7990%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d7b…332dbacked Virtus.pro26c39.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.191020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b45…d5f4backed Team Spirit74c38.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Team Spirit74c37.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8426958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Team Spirit74c36.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Team Spirit73c29.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0414154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.