Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacea0f1fe5e07dabc011e765667733dea938f0c476639eaa416cf916027611b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 12c | 518.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.59 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 402.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 33c | 381.72$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.93 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 28c | 361.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.75 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 359.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 324.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 195$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 42c | 162.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 152.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 21c | 148.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 137.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 15c | 137.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 28c | 127.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 113.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 98.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 87.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 21c | 74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 71.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 68.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 63.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 61.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 57.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 57.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 50.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 47.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 47.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 23c | 45.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 44.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 41.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 35.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 34.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 33.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 44c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 32.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 31.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 28.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 26.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 55c | 25.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 21.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 64c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 16.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…0500backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d5c6backed No | 70c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.