Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd4fd0ed48b7df03589c819afc227bac1585cc1f206659384352b1d510de2c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 2,987$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.46 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 523.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 455.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 43c | 326.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 56c | 311.19$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 288.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 13c | 171.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 150.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 135$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 126.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 116.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 60c | 106.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 101.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 100.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 90.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 78.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 73.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 72.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 71.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 16c | 71.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 70.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 59c | 66.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 61.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 58.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 54.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 54c | 54.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 55c | 53.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 48.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 41c | 46.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 57c | 46.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 43.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 41c | 37.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 36.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 49c | 33.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…f855backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a338backed Yes | 42c | 31.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 29.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 58c | 24.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 76c | 23.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 65c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 73c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 58c | 18.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 65c | 15.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 77c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.