F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacf0098be1d0242d87f1f13551d92f6bd59ed4f951ea03ac3c52ce8f1ac878c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,718$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 3c | 1,297$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 1,121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,006$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 6c | 801$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…2582backed Yes | 4c | 618.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 3c | 602.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 2c | 431.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 421.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 10c | 410.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…6a0abacked Yes | 5c | 394.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…3f7fbacked Yes | 6c | 311.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…1987backed Yes | 4c | 273.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 259$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…c23cbacked Yes | 5c | 248.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…d9e4backed Yes | 5c | 229.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 6c | 224.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…af8bbacked Yes | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…0b30backed Yes | 10c | 206.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 14c | 183.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…5d96backed Yes | 11c | 108.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…df9fbacked Yes | 11c | 90.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.