F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x035fb59e0865fd3f6118df5ddd4574ae66ab3a4a5763a32a7ce5cb08139f20af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…45eebacked Yes | 19c | 1,814$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 4c | 1,283$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…b0e9backed Yes | 9c | 1,129$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 1,115$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…19abbacked Yes | 15c | 939.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 900.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 6c | 559.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 3c | 438.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…026ebacked Yes | 24c | 418.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…d8a7backed Yes | 4c | 405.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…a8efbacked Yes | 6c | 363.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…e0dbbacked Yes | 14c | 351.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…f11ebacked Yes | 32c | 314.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes | 8c | 265.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…1987backed Yes | 13c | 227.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 12c | 185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 11c | 180.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed No | 80c | 174.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…c50ebacked Yes | 9c | 159.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 130.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 27c | 129.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 12c | 123.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…6f51backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…01f3backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e16…d17ebacked Yes | 11c | 94.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 12c | 92.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Yes | 21c | 60.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…7275backed Yes | 32c | 36.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 67c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.