Fifa International · resolved market
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaad43a5238f96a04b459989047855d358432744c3eb39fc81a3b985054a1bc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 5,614$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…1b98backed Yes | 4c | 5,437$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 33c | 931.42$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.37 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 32c | 799.96$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 67c | 518$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 67c | 466.16$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 365.25$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…a593backed Yes | 34c | 313.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 272.54$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 67c | 150.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…fd7cbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 66c | 142.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 130.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 33c | 114.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca4…8bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…aedebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 66c | 53.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 20.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…6e40backed No | 67c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden?this page
- Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia?Yes won
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.