TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,987 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a26…937ebacked Cincinnati Reds57c35,013$20,000 inWon+$15,012.5961351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies41c32,359$13,385 inLost-$13,384.6510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies41c2,082$854 inLost-$853.594,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies38c1,297$496 inLost-$495.944,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Phillies38c394.74$150 inLost-$15063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Philadelphia Phillies14c326.18$45 inLost-$44.681,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Philadelphia Phillies37c163.38$60 inLost-$60.451,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies16c158$25 inLost-$25.111,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies15c115$17 inLost-$17.144,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies39c60.86$24 inLost-$23.681,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecb…87ddbacked Philadelphia Phillies47c53.19$25 inLost-$252839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Philadelphia Phillies43c52.49$23 inLost-$22.5750954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Philadelphia Phillies38c32$12 inLost-$12.0416734.7%58 W · 109 L-17.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds80c14$11 inWon+$2.871,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.