MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2602d2eb7e869b4745e0d6d8c7e3daec7582f1b7370a5e27e1b2e5d090f0c46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 6,853$3,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 5,438$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 4,595$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 2,744$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 13c | 998.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 48c | 521.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 470.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 47c | 320.33$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 64c | 155.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 54c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 39c | 147.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 49c | 109$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 55c | 97.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 47c | 62.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 46c | 60.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 48.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 40c | 46.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 59c | 41.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce56…23d1backed Over | 62c | 20.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…c8f3backed Over | 62c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…9121backed Over | 62c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…f562backed Over | 62c | 19.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…4f44backed Over | 62c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…bfedbacked Over | 60c | 18.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…7ecfbacked Over | 62c | 17.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2f1ebacked Over | 62c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e4…afddbacked Over | 62c | 17.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…7f39backed Over | 62c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…8057backed Over | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.