MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaaef5585e8ed64d1976513a19335c0bead23abf4182b785b039d0ba326fa242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 21,796$12,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,535.75 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 13,659$6,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,535.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 6,487$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,767.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 5,534$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.44 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 3,792$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.09 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 3,762$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 3,710$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.6 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,956$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.04 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 1,691$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 1,494$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 571.64$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 537.1$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.55 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 450$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 433.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 420.23$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 290.46$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 254.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 237.83$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 209$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 195.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 106.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 80.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…749dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 51.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 40.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 37.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 32.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 29.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 56.5%165 W · 127 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 18.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.