Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab0472146a3ae4bc8d6bd8eae2b6d21c09faff7a756aec7df0acebd36a5e8c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 16c | 4,269$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.96 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.08 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…8fc8backed Yes | 9c | 966.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…94ffbacked Yes | 15c | 950$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 12c | 811.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 3c | 699.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +252.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 14c | 661.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 139 | 39.6%55 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Yes | 14c | 654.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…57bbbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Yes | 10c | 579.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…0e5abacked Yes | 20c | 515$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 17c | 433.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 7c | 422.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 15c | 381.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 15c | 330.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11df…731fbacked Yes | 12c | 320.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…833dbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…d139backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…a6e1backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…983bbacked Yes | 14c | 105.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…7b9abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb529…1500backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 13c | 91.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…37e0backed Yes | 16c | 89.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…85bfbacked Yes | 15c | 82.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 15c | 70.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd659…4abbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
- Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.