Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab08ef245124b1fad37223325fd71817148ea8723ac5c0bb9cc61965ab4d6fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 366.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 213.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 51c | 196.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 50c | 149.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 145.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 145.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…1ae5backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 92.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 89.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 80.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 70.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 49c | 68.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 50c | 63.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 60.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 51.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 51c | 41.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 40.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 50c | 33.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 54c | 31.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 45c | 30.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…e1ecbacked No | 51c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed Yes | 50c | 29.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…5915backed Yes | 47c | 28.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 27.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.