World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5632200625c5c8e3d3f0e70828658a2d9a6a192587aa003de0411e23513512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,667$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.55 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked Yes | 4c | 585.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 489.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 482.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 20c | 463.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 370.63$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 359.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 336.67$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 334.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 332.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 30c | 331.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 288.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 34c | 275$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 271.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 15c | 265.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 14c | 230.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 11c | 227.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 15c | 187.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 76c | 183.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 183$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 177.09$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 12c | 160.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 160.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 146.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 33c | 140.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 13c | 128.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 122.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…47b2backed Yes | 22c | 113.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 112.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…eb1bbacked No | 75c | 105.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 18c | 102.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 19c | 91.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 79c | 77.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 78c | 71.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…d76ebacked No | 76c | 62.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 80c | 58.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 35c | 56.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 20c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 51.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 20c | 51.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 47.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 36.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 27.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 78c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.