TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,436 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa054…a95dbacked No65c1,624$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.755961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes42c1,599$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.049337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes70c1,202$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.432638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes44c970.7$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No21c561.95$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5122355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c536$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No46c526.74$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.984856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c495.53$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4811039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c426.27$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2815356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes27c424.27$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No40c423.85$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.652020%4 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c390.15$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes25c375$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.27020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes33c373.4$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.6112040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes39c331.74$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No36c328.58$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0924637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c326.89$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes7c280.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.75837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No53c279.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes24c273.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.235749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No31c267.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.825127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No33c250.57$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2712249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes58c248.36$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.471258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c236.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.355916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes12c232.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3422111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed Yes56c217.91$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes16c215.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.094358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes56c212.71$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c200.81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1622955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+201.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c193.9$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.427560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c191.79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.76330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c185.63$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0418762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c183$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c180.75$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab9…bedebacked No78c177.88$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c176.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1526632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No49c176.07$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6913748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes29c170.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed No19c169.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes34c167.6$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.234037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes15c164.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0416934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x840a…7ababacked No24c163.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No29c160.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.396533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c154.47$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes39c152.49$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.447353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes27c151.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1055131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes41c150$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.512816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes13c138.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.631643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No10c135.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.953551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes42c134.83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.365341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c134.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4239414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb64a…0c47backed No75c132.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.911936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes17c129.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.742339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No64c125.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.752157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes33c125.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.175945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c124$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3831152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c123$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0210320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c115.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.644428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No61c110.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.243961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes28c108.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6212055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes10c104$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8405%2 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes35c103.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.093943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes61c101.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes23c100.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes36c100.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.742737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd293…a4e3backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c99.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c97.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.527521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked No21c96.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick16cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No26c95.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0716051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No63c95.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.813565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes41c95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.981540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes26c91.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.975427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No56c90.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6914467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No79c90$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.752369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b9…125ebacked Yes45c85.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No65c84.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes37c83.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd3…e777backed Yes60c83.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes49c82.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x353f…1623backed Yes32c78.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes35c76.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.271136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No28c76.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.441957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes70c76.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No56c75.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.225253.8%28 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No61c73.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.217058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No71c72.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.246960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes24c68.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.110733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No36c68.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.495646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes53c67.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.011450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes35c67.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No21c67.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.416346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a15…2e27backed No75c66.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa4…8886backed No76c66.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.