World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21a748ff1b48a6701f4cfd66f854f372be692dcbaa343bd10af29d3ea9b8840a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 65c | 1,624$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 1,599$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.04 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 70c | 1,202$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 44c | 970.7$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 561.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 536$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 46c | 526.74$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.98 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 495.53$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 426.27$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.28 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 424.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.19 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 40c | 423.85$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 390.15$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 25c | 375$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.2 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 373.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.61 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 39c | 331.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 328.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 326.89$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.78 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 7c | 280.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.7 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 53c | 279.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 24c | 273.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.23 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 31c | 267.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 250.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 58c | 248.36$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 236.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.35 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 232.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.34 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 56c | 217.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 16c | 215.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.09 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 56c | 212.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 200.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 193.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 191.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 185.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 183$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 180.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…bedebacked No | 78c | 177.88$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 176.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.15 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 176.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 29c | 170.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 19c | 169.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 167.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 15c | 164.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 24c | 163.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 29c | 160.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 154.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 39c | 152.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 27c | 151.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 13c | 138.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 10c | 135.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 42c | 134.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 134.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…0c47backed No | 75c | 132.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 17c | 129.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 125.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 125.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 124$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 115.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 61c | 110.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 28c | 108.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 35c | 103.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 61c | 101.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 23c | 100.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 36c | 100.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 99.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 97.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked No | 21c | 96.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 95.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 95.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 26c | 91.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 90.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…125ebacked Yes | 45c | 85.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 65c | 84.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 37c | 83.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…e777backed Yes | 60c | 83.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 49c | 82.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed Yes | 32c | 78.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 35c | 76.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 28c | 76.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 70c | 76.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 75.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 73.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 72.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 24c | 68.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 36c | 68.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 53c | 67.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 35c | 67.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 67.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…2e27backed No | 75c | 66.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…8886backed No | 76c | 66.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.