World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x802b74d9e6b5f0ef77db7f1b72eeb414d8590ab2692e5c62cc74ea67fe47ba1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 991.06$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 19c | 911.47$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 55c | 881$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 733.84$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.91 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 711.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 48c | 642.91$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 11c | 509.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 490.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 488.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 468.03$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.18 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 467.66$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.46 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed Yes | 24c | 448.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 423.01$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.56 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 75c | 402.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 59c | 333.87$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 57c | 323.64$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 41c | 322.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 304.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 302.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 298.22$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 289.85$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 274.55$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 46c | 266.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 251$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 250$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 49c | 244.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 218.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 53c | 212.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 207.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 195.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 188.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 183$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 181.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 177.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 168.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 24c | 162.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 24c | 155.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 154.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 154.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 153.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 151$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 36c | 149.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 18c | 148.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 34c | 146.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 10c | 143.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 140.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 62c | 138.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 124.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 48c | 123.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 118.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 71c | 117.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 18c | 116.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 41c | 110.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 49c | 109.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 28c | 105.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 48c | 101.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 50c | 100.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 97.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 95.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 89.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 52c | 89.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 56c | 88.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 46c | 87.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 59c | 87.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 52c | 85.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 62c | 83.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 63c | 83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes | 52c | 80.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 63c | 80.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 24c | 78.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 75c | 77.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 75.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 60c | 73.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 49c | 72.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…b3b8backed Yes | 64c | 69.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 49c | 68.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 52c | 65.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 65.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 55c | 64.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 61.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 59.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 58.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 57.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 66c | 55.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 53c | 54.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 53.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 65c | 53.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.