Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5bccf488b3653fc838711890aef67b38ad5e974b6453e4f93e2dd2828aea5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,999$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.55 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…1e26backed Yes | 16c | 941.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 22c | 886.59$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 754.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 590.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 28c | 564.64$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 393.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 16c | 376.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 359.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 14c | 356.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 18c | 299.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 298.22$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 272.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 28c | 268.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 256.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 14c | 256.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 78c | 204.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 14c | 202.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 193.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 178.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 15c | 170.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…9be9backed Yes | 25c | 168.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced5…e28dbacked Yes | 15c | 163$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked Yes | 19c | 156.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…e5e7backed Yes | 25c | 156$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 155.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 7c | 152.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 150.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 148.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 14c | 133.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 20c | 132.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 120.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 14c | 112.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 106.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 12c | 100.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…a793backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…3ee9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…4b5ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 14c | 95.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe3…3410backed Yes | 21c | 90.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 86.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 78.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 19c | 77.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 77.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 16c | 76.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 28c | 72.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 24c | 70.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…9ecabacked Yes | 19c | 59.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 56.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 78c | 48.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 77c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.