TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes1c4,161$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes2c1,570$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.298538.8%33 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes8c1,387$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.621,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes28c650$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.255336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6d…f921backed Yes25c539$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.443324.2%8 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes13c508.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c373.21$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.473,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c347$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.225,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x220f…5476backed Yes25c338.66$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c325$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.65,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c299.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes14c290.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.972,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes13c277.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1934922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c268$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed No63c240.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3416552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7433929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f29…475abacked Yes30c197.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.997233.3%24 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c187.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.730832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes19c179.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2747432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No75c173.14$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.292,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes13c169.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.649622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes26c164.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.751,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c153.68$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.973,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No76c150.39$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.772,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c141.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No80c139$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.452,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f7…8bf1backed No77c130.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.532060%12 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed Yes28c129.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2827851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe094…11cdbacked Yes23c129.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.336613.6%9 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No77c128.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6780560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633d…80a2backed Yes22c128$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.13644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c118.09$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.892,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes17c114.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8817524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c111.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.194,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes26c110.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2714635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes18c109.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4126933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c103.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3771031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes18c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes30c98.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2620631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2175…1e26backed Yes25c97.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…c73bbacked No74c94.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.74683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba88…a08ebacked No74c93.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.993764.9%24 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No74c86.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.393,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b2e…14bdbacked Yes29c85.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c85.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.916,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10fe…9af6backed Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.87230.6%22 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes39c76.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa519…2624backed Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c72.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.433,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes26c72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7272125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c71.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes27c71.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0745540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No79c67.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.322,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No79c66.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes22c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.317324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes20c64.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes30c62.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9818033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae60…9c28backed Yes28c61.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.985825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No74c60.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.392,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes25c57.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.258942.7%38 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked No75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.339965.7%65 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x706c…189dbacked Yes27c52.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes28c50.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2847423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed No76c50.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.889162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3a…b9e6backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33f1…0335backed Yes28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No76c47.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.332,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked Yes22c46.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.297550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No74c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.636861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes27c44.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c44.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.672,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked No72c42.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.835354.7%29 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No76c40.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412535.2%44 W · 81 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes27c39.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.962,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No80c33.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.484,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No72c31.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7157264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf62b…07c5backed No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.642,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No77c25.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8316348.5%79 W · 84 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8b…2ef7backed No78c25.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No69c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No79c21.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5628456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e6…0210backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.448261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No72c18.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2482562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0439968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No60c17.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.152,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.