Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3bef5354d51f2ff75abc52878476a7f620151898ea9512895ebe8b5b82725b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 1c | 4,161$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,570$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 1,387$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 650$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 25c | 539$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 508.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 373.21$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 347$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 25c | 338.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 325$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 290.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 277.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 268$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 240.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 30c | 197.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 187.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 19c | 179.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 173.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 169.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 26c | 164.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 153.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 150.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 141.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 139$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 77c | 130.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 28c | 129.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 23c | 129.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 128.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 118.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 17c | 114.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 111.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 26c | 110.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 18c | 109.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 103.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 30c | 98.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…1e26backed Yes | 25c | 97.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…c73bbacked No | 74c | 94.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 74c | 93.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 86.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…14bdbacked Yes | 29c | 85.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 85.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 39c | 76.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2624backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 72.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 71.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 27c | 71.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 67.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 66.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 64.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 28c | 61.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 60.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 25c | 57.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 27c | 52.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 28c | 50.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 76c | 50.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…0335backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 47.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 22c | 46.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 27c | 44.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 44.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 72c | 42.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 40.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 27c | 39.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 33.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 31.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 79c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 60c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.