Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc895f2f3eb743e2bff4b5265c916ad3305014e14320b7d4d4b2f7c11dc8abd8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 0c | 14,607$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 1,209$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.71 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 71c | 965.47$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.71 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 53c | 588.6$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 55c | 555.15$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.52 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 447.2$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 32c | 437.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 429.14$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…1e26backed Yes | 54c | 400.14$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 383$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 62c | 349.89$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 339$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 34c | 305.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 74c | 302.74$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 280.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 45c | 220.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 50c | 210.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 208.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 197.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 55c | 180.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…b448backed Yes | 57c | 176.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 169.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 163.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 162.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 162.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 159.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 49c | 147$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 146.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 48c | 142.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 46c | 141.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 137.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 137.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 135.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 50c | 128.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed No | 43c | 125.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 120.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 108.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 108.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 44c | 107.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 47c | 104.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 103.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 100.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed No | 34c | 97.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 31c | 96.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 54c | 92.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 90.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed No | 56c | 89.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 85.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 84.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 56c | 84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 53c | 82.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 51c | 82.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 49c | 77.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 54c | 74.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 73.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 70.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 48c | 70.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 55c | 69.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 46c | 64.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced5…e28dbacked Yes | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed Yes | 50c | 60.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…2d5dbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 24c | 54.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 49.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 49c | 49.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 46.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed Yes | 44c | 45.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 28c | 44.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 48c | 40.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked No | 54c | 40.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…07c5backed No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 62c | 39.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.