Weather · resolved market
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab66bc7bd374546d9f4469539d382d6b89fab47185e18b7a95e496cb417abc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80af…0c19backed No | 4c | 2,102$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 942.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 3c | 605.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 3c | 418.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…4f6cbacked Yes | 61c | 408.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…8f25backed No | 6c | 348.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 5c | 286.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 12c | 262.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…1b6dbacked No | 48c | 255$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8d…eaa5backed No | 51c | 182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 14c | 177.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4a…d404backed No | 58c | 177$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…5028backed No | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a9…697ebacked No | 47c | 146$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01be…611ebacked No | 58c | 144$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 142.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.26 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd07…e610backed No | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 31c | 127.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…41a6backed Yes | 24c | 126.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +311.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 123.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…0184backed No | 51c | 113$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…0dc2backed No | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7205backed No | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…9faabacked No | 52c | 98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5c84backed No | 34c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…401cbacked No | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…fa0fbacked No | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc687…ede8backed No | 41c | 93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 92.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…8dccbacked Yes | 52c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf58…c489backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…d2c9backed Yes | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…29a6backed Yes | 49c | 82.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…2029backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…9891backed No | 49c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…a050backed No | 54c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…15f4backed No | 52c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…e46abacked Yes | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…deddbacked No | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…fffcbacked No | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43e…6ee7backed Yes | 57c | 72.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971e…9f3dbacked No | 51c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…e76bbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e5…d3debacked Yes | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…0a3dbacked No | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…f26dbacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…3fdabacked No | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…2d2abacked Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…008dbacked No | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e6…7299backed No | 50c | 61.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…3aa9backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…71b2backed No | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…340ebacked Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac0…8b2abacked No | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b6…6f4dbacked Yes | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…87d9backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c68…5eaabacked No | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…ba20backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 27c | 52.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…b0d1backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…2b5abacked No | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…6ae4backed Yes | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…8e2abacked No | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…a89cbacked Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…cff3backed Yes | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…d1ccbacked Yes | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…ed00backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe1…07bebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…1998backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 25c | 49.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…ade8backed No | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…6e93backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…910bbacked Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…1c9dbacked No | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6355…30b4backed No | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…b48fbacked No | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…ade8backed Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…522dbacked Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…04e7backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…298dbacked No | 49c | 47.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…02b5backed No | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…43dcbacked Yes | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…37eebacked No | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…3745backed Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…d764backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…b41abacked No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…bc39backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…1197backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…ba8fbacked No | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…b90fbacked No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6e…7307backed Yes | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…0bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa97…1a3ebacked Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…8d9dbacked Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…7eb2backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…23fabacked Yes | 75c | 41.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…4ff3backed No | 48c | 41.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6342…7ffebacked No | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers?this page
- Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be <14m square kilometers?No won
- Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be at least 15m square kilometers?No won
- Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.4m & 14.6m square kilometers?No won
- Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.6m & 14.8m square kilometers?No won
- Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14m & 14.2m square kilometers?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.