Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6cb9949f3d400c9d414d8f1232fcfb2d7dce2d99f955d483cd439a16246c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 80c | 2,320$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 19c | 2,109$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.76 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 1,714$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.43 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 1,683$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.11 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 10c | 618.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 424.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…7345backed Over | 22c | 397.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 17c | 285.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 196.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 76c | 166.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 76c | 164$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Under | 77c | 129.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 116.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…51f6backed Under | 77c | 42.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +745.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Under | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.