Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80b7a6b1105972f82b32d71c84df18cf67f37eb92daf7266a0111a2980096fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 13c | 7,064$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.36 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 5,081$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.29 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 60c | 2,799$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.78 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…d857backed Over | 69c | 1,687$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 1,599$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.88 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 28c | 1,450$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.99 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 1,122$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.66 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 1,014$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.49 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 32c | 816.53$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.93 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 31c | 618.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.53 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 512.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 62c | 462.51$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.17 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…51f6backed Under | 6c | 451.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +745.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d8a5backed Over | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 64c | 347.69$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 77c | 342.43$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.03 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 54c | 328.23$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…42fbbacked Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 52c | 286.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…eef2backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 69c | 180.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 55c | 179.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 176.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 25c | 170$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 169.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Under | 60c | 157.37$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 66c | 151.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…6f39backed Over | 77c | 142.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 14c | 125.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…3c50backed Under | 50c | 110.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 34c | 85.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 56c | 83.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 67.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 38c | 65.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 61c | 64.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ec90backed Over | 66c | 60.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…399cbacked Under | 52c | 54.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Under | 35c | 50.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Under | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 37c | 43.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 37c | 42.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 61c | 39.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Under | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a78…a6bebacked Under | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 68c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9e…6f3ebacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Over | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Over | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.