CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7335ea1b93f53f6117b3c063a76d080dc79bb21ad3c3293c48c3f759dd5a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof illwill, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked illwill | 47c | 3,931$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.42 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked G2 Ares | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 439 | 51.7%227 W · 212 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 34c | 2,453$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.58 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed G2 Ares | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked G2 Ares | 54c | 682.48$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…af95backed illwill | 49c | 514.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked G2 Ares | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed G2 Ares | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked G2 Ares | 53c | 492.87$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.71 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed illwill | 47c | 488.67$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.4 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…cec3backed G2 Ares | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked G2 Ares | 52c | 362$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed G2 Ares | 55c | 200.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…2d98backed G2 Ares | 57c | 182$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed G2 Ares | 54c | 161.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed G2 Ares | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed illwill | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group StageG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.