CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26720d755bb68641359acb0f64c64508b1370fc6aa3eacd0fc6741fcd71736fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed illwill | 62c | 3,128$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.5 | 450 | 58.9%265 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked G2 Ares | 35c | 1,567$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.3 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked G2 Ares | 5c | 1,389$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed illwill | 59c | 1,240$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.64 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 59c | 973.41$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.56 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…4df8backed illwill | 53c | 654.81$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.76 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed G2 Ares | 27c | 652.92$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed G2 Ares | 12c | 620.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked G2 Ares | 43c | 579.19$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked G2 Ares | 12c | 546.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173f…e44dbacked G2 Ares | 40c | 490.4$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Ares | 28c | 484.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked G2 Ares | 44c | 436.66$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares | 31c | 372.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…303ebacked illwill | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…40d8backed G2 Ares | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked G2 Ares | 39c | 326.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 63c | 319.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed G2 Ares | 46c | 315$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed G2 Ares | 47c | 312$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed G2 Ares | 40c | 277.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe91e…9ea8backed G2 Ares | 10c | 264.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked G2 Ares | 45c | 263.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed G2 Ares | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked G2 Ares | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked G2 Ares | 40c | 256.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Ares | 41c | 250.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked illwill | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed G2 Ares | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 427 | 57.8%247 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed G2 Ares | 38c | 238.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…ce32backed G2 Ares | 43c | 228.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed G2 Ares | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked G2 Ares | 26c | 195.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed G2 Ares | 36c | 194.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed illwill | 66c | 190.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked G2 Ares | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9335backed G2 Ares | 13c | 179.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed G2 Ares | 42c | 171.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…3841backed illwill | 64c | 168$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked G2 Ares | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed G2 Ares | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked G2 Ares | 9c | 136.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed G2 Ares | 9c | 133.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked illwill | 59c | 124.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked G2 Ares | 43c | 117.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48bf…f7e2backed G2 Ares | 46c | 115.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…8588backed G2 Ares | 42c | 107.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked G2 Ares | 40c | 106.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Ares | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked G2 Ares | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked G2 Ares | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed G2 Ares | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 61.7%221 W · 137 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…0ababacked G2 Ares | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked illwill | 73c | 84.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Ares | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked G2 Ares | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked G2 Ares | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 305 | 45.9%140 W · 165 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…ba6ebacked G2 Ares | 36c | 53.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked G2 Ares | 40c | 53.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 230 | 38.3%88 W · 142 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked G2 Ares | 19c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…a933backed G2 Ares | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Ares | 43c | 43.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed G2 Ares | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked illwill | 61c | 38.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…96ecbacked G2 Ares | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed G2 Ares | 37c | 27.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked G2 Ares | 39c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…b932backed illwill | 60c | 24.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed illwill | 64c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed illwill | 70c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed illwill | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed illwill | 62c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group StageG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5)G2 Ares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.