TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Aresof illwill, G2 Ares
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa927…8d9fbacked illwill54c9,524$5,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,132.0934559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed illwill1c4,200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked G2 Ares31c3,103$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.5663541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed illwill1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1838312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed G2 Ares31c1,643$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.132,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf6…2d98backed G2 Ares31c1,643$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.751866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+43%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked illwill1c1,504$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0911421.1%24 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed illwill3c1,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9942427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed illwill54c1,074$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.117143.9%75 W · 96 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked illwill56c854.34$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8731647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed G2 Ares45c809.33$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.1538835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed illwill66c759.99$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.599250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked illwill31c673.24$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.772,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill62c625.41$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.755,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed illwill49c591.56$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.086,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked G2 Ares34c589.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.125650%28 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed G2 Ares38c547.5$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.4588242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed G2 Ares24c541.69$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3652750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked illwill39c530.97$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.636647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed illwill60c517.54$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.5265946.9%309 W · 350 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed illwill66c499.98$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9845859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed illwill12c472$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3257935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed illwill67c470.67$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.174,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked illwill50c470.09$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.483,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked illwill11c438.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9219231.3%60 W · 132 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed illwill50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked illwill66c394.9$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.382,60552.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked illwill48c384.52$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.662738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed illwill33c348.57$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9262350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked G2 Ares47c332.07$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.621,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed illwill33c322.05$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.335,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed G2 Ares31c307.1$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.925147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed illwill25c291.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.251,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed G2 Ares30c278.9$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.9427544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed G2 Ares52c260$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked illwill61c250.78$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15323537.9%89 W · 146 L-16.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked illwill59c249.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.520248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked illwill39c239.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.782,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4704…515ebacked illwill59c217.35$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5237140.7%151 W · 220 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf6…0e3bbacked illwill30c202.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.13138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed G2 Ares15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17018432.6%60 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a19…86c8backed G2 Ares15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1706330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked illwill31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6221741%89 W · 128 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed illwill40c193.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.162,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed G2 Ares54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.199140.7%37 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed G2 Ares41c176.73$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6262448.2%301 W · 323 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed G2 Ares44c165.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6996743.5%421 W · 546 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed illwill64c158.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.342,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked illwill53c153.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.583,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked G2 Ares39c152.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0819150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…9335backed G2 Ares30c144.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4813127.5%36 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x926d…f416backed illwill70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed illwill47c138.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6576546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed G2 Ares43c137.47$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.471,32544.1%584 W · 741 L+44.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3812…e4b0backed illwill37c136.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011242%47 W · 65 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed illwill48c131.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.62,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed illwill44c127$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3978043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed G2 Ares36c126.79$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.155347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed G2 Ares18c124.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.259137.4%34 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked illwill41c116.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.232,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed illwill50c106.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.972458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed G2 Ares31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked illwill10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014543.4%63 W · 82 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8885…7712backed illwill21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed G2 Ares38c97.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.257250%36 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed G2 Ares41c91.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.837339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed illwill40c91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9745240.3%182 W · 270 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed G2 Ares30c90.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.58651.2%44 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd776…4fb8backed illwill54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.857435.1%26 W · 48 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked illwill44c88.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8711644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed illwill50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed illwill71c64.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2430247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b22…377ebacked illwill69c62.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6636174.8%270 W · 91 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7886…ec60backed illwill54c60.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.599145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed G2 Ares39c54.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5211145.9%51 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked G2 Ares68c53.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.262,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked illwill67c51.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.74757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked G2 Ares49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.511831.4%37 W · 81 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda33…cd9abacked illwill50c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515457.1%88 W · 66 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ac…e2a8backed illwill60c43.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611650.9%59 W · 57 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe91e…9ea8backed G2 Ares60c41.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8910438.5%40 W · 64 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked illwill44c40.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8175…fc3bbacked G2 Ares30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb7e…9546backed illwill41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.354146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed illwill31c33.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2566436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed illwill67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed illwill56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8364046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked G2 Ares68c29.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5611661.2%71 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed illwill60c22.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7277351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65f8…22abbacked illwill69c19.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed illwill62c18.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4550051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill69c16.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked illwill80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,27871.5%914 W · 364 L+3.6wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.