Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7464bd0174932f4a52509c46298cdca7ca994c3f69dece092c530fac21cecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 442.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 7c | 406.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 376.96$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 307.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 70c | 291.29$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 230.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 47c | 228.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 10c | 218.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 203.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 7c | 201.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 189.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 29c | 179.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 172.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 30c | 157.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 20c | 155.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 149.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 148.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 48c | 147.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 24c | 138.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 129.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 126.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked No | 53c | 126.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 118.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 104.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 104.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 61c | 102.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes | 32c | 99.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 69c | 98.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 85.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 85.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked Yes | 33c | 83.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 82.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 78.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 77.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 36c | 76.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 30c | 65.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 44c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 57c | 62.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ab…5429backed Yes | 34c | 55.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 40c | 54.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 43c | 50.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 30c | 49.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 41c | 47.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 55c | 44.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 43c | 43.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes | 43c | 38.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 38c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 64c | 36.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…35c1backed Yes | 44c | 32.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked No | 66c | 29.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 61c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 72c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed Yes | 39c | 26.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 64c | 25.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 64c | 24.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 62c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 63c | 17.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 65c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 67c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 14.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.