Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b88710c9a3f30cd2934f2f670e9a80d89bb472db538643671d7472911a381aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 717.54$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.73 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 10c | 522.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 392.69$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 345.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 61c | 340.11$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 225.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 185.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 173.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.26 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 77c | 163.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 57c | 154.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 131.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 55c | 121.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 48c | 120.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 41c | 119.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 117.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 115.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 40c | 105.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 13c | 97.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 19c | 97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 52c | 92.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 31c | 89.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 57c | 83.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 83.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 77.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 18c | 76.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 48c | 76.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16dd…f64cbacked No | 71c | 75.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 70c | 74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 68.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 65.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 61.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 48c | 59.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 58.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 72c | 58.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 77c | 53.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed No | 70c | 52.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 70c | 45.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 72c | 44.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 44.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 66c | 43.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 52c | 41.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 31c | 41.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 59c | 40.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 37.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 51c | 37.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 53c | 35.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 54c | 33.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 62c | 31.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed No | 68c | 28.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 55c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 69c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 66c | 27.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 27.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked No | 50c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 45c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 53c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 57c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.