Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac61bc61e43021f7e69666b60d95aa1061730fec644374fac30cf286690a2da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 879.39$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 801.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 486.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 434.06$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 14c | 379.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…1597backed Yes | 5c | 366.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 279.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 14c | 269.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 8c | 241.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 8c | 235.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 5c | 234.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 37c | 223.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 217.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 16c | 196.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 11c | 182.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 173.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 169.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 64c | 166.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 159.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 8c | 148.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 72c | 139.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 10c | 131.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 123.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 123.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 14c | 121.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 109.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 107.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 22c | 99.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 93.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 91.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 88.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 67c | 85.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 23c | 83.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 75c | 78.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 25c | 77.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 43c | 76.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 19c | 76.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 40c | 72.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 21c | 69.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 41c | 65.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 62c | 64.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 18c | 63.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 58c | 60.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 58.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 49c | 55.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 32c | 46.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 45.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 45.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 28c | 43.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 43c | 42.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 27c | 41.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 72c | 41.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…bc77backed No | 77c | 41.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 78c | 37.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed Yes | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 75c | 36.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…b509backed No | 53c | 35.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…9d11backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 64c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 76c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcadb…41a3backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked No | 79c | 24.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 79c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked No | 69c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…b1d1backed No | 54c | 24.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5541backed No | 53c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 50c | 21.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 74c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 74c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 80c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 79c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 68c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.