Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab9dcfe8ec683339daae52a16f0e6efbc60251d862c51066e2844478ec7e891e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Yes | 20c | 7,067$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 1,365$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.33 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 1,227$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.86 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 14c | 1,206$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 489.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 26c | 433.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 56c | 191.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 51c | 177$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…0a96backed Yes | 12c | 149.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 145.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 15c | 139.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 48c | 133.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 28c | 132.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed No | 70c | 131.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +8.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 50c | 124.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 117.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 107.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 77c | 88.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 83.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 75c | 82.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 50c | 80.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 72c | 74.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 68c | 70.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…c2ddbacked No | 76c | 52.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 46c | 38.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 49c | 36.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 71c | 33.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-07?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-08-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.