MLB · resolved market
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabba4cdbbc991589f93e6ad296264cf58ac0be672afce5014159d39f8f7dca58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed New York Yankees | 25c | 3,000$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.99 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 895.24$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.97 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 526.61$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1112…3104backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 339.15$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 248.49$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 235.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 203.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 159.81$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.