MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4326938784df33bd1768291218ad119302961fac264e00fcce36e8935447460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 9,737$3,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,457.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 9,128$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 65c | 9,010$5,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 7,375$4,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Under | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Under | 49c | 689.28$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 37c | 404.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 70c | 211.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 70c | 207.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 58c | 137$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 47c | 117$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 100.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Under | 68c | 96.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 32c | 94.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 70c | 90.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Under | 70c | 84.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 45c | 83.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 62c | 83.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 70c | 67.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 66c | 52.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 48.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 29c | 46.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 42c | 45.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 56c | 39.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 25.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…120dbacked Under | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 70c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.