MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8d7eba98dbf7cd1ed405dd2e530210abd3f28e07bd150407b25ac7b1fde13f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 53c | 524.74$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.03 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 45c | 396.8$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 296.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed No | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 124.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 54c | 60.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…74f1backed No | 52c | 31.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed Yes | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 42c | 28.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…394abacked Yes | 48c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…8fd3backed No | 52c | 28.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…8194backed Yes | 49c | 28.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…85a8backed Yes | 49c | 28.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…c255backed Yes | 49c | 27.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…3b98backed Yes | 49c | 26.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…8698backed Yes | 48c | 26.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked No | 58c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 44c | 25.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…bed7backed Yes | 48c | 24.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…a79cbacked Yes | 49c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 79c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b8…d280backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…b7d4backed No | 52c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…8000backed Yes | 49c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…23fabacked Yes | 49c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bc…afb5backed No | 52c | 23.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…7854backed Yes | 49c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…fb30backed Yes | 49c | 20.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…c11fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…9f54backed No | 52c | 19.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.