Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc5edb0c63b31e9de142d0d113795cff180a685df00d0b2b6055ffe7dc663ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,338$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 803.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 574.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 511.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 504.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 22c | 499.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 483.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 20c | 452.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 402.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 6c | 400.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 399.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 16c | 333.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 299.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 287.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 9c | 259.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…32c8backed Yes | 7c | 244.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 12c | 233.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 9c | 217.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 202.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 9c | 169.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 12c | 151.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…a069backed Yes | 12c | 149.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 20c | 137.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 15c | 131.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 8c | 129$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed No | 80c | 125.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 11c | 94.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked No | 79c | 88.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 13c | 81.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 66.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 61.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…9f78backed Yes | 27c | 56.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…20b0backed No | 80c | 35.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…3235backed No | 79c | 28.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 79c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.