TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes2c1,304$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.892,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed Yes23c1,067$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.835125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c687.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.791,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes15c630.69$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7734533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c570.71$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.922,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No80c559.56$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes34c553.17$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.616637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes32c499.67$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes32c496.48$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16018035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes15c475.61$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.913,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c390.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.592,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c366$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.725,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c355.57$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.964,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes21c322.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9916543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90cf…01acbacked Yes32c311.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c287.65$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No71c285$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.713,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c281$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c278.2$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.015,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes15c276.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.672837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes28c253.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c253.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes12c241.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7317524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes32c223.34$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.164734%16 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes37c217.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfa7…3fcebacked No68c205.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.881421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No68c202.77$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c166.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes10c165.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c157.11$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c143.44$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.353,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes38c138$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.441127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No66c137.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3646824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked Yes31c137.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.363426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c136.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e6…beb0backed No74c135.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes28c133.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9940025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes29c129.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c121.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes19c116.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c112.39$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes28c108.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee0…28d5backed No79c107.59$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.591471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes28c105.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes29c102$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.941637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes25c100.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab7…945ebacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c97.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c86.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.31,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes28c77.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No69c71.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0919662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes18c70.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes23c69.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.127421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No78c68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1439966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes30c67.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed No74c66.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.417552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c66.25$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.813,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes31c64.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked No74c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.49346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8da…096fbacked No66c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.451070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c52.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c51.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes24c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.243647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No65c50.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No62c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8654547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b62…b6a4backed No73c39.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81450%7 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+2.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.322,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c35.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.824,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes33c35.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8952828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes31c32.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3424…6b9fbacked Yes32c32.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No62c31.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9117443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2514252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7742151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c30.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a1…a453backed No67c29.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c29.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.511,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes36c27.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0544465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No69c27.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5843559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No74c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.939272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No74c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9322265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…3144backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No70c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No72c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0628660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.