Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae28ad1d680972a3efe05d51530b7af1524bc0fb9d4f8df64931737e7d5cbda2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 21c | 2,540$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.69 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 20c | 1,601$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.24 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,252$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.24 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 927.16$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 691.7$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 560.9$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 63c | 538.48$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.52 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 40c | 505.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.48 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 490.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.52 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 67c | 396.01$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 357.24$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 63c | 348.61$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 348.51$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 344.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 332.24$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 327.57$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 77c | 307.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 278.2$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 20c | 274.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.97 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 267$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 7c | 264$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.86 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 256.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 256.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.62 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 39c | 252.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.92 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 14c | 244.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.23 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 236$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.23 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 31c | 231.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 221.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 220.18$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 40c | 216.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 208.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 58c | 206.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 16c | 191.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…cbbfbacked No | 42c | 188.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 14c | 177.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 172.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 80c | 167.27$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 9c | 166.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 162.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 157.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 30c | 153.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 148.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 143.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 73c | 141.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 134.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 43c | 129$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 125.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 123.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 16c | 122.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 121.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 80c | 121.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 121.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 18c | 111.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 46c | 109.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 40c | 108.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 107.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 20c | 105.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 104.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 24c | 104.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 19c | 101.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…8a95backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 73c | 98.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 95.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…67c5backed Yes | 23c | 95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 89.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 23c | 87.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed No | 80c | 86.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +70%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 27c | 82.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…0f72backed No | 74c | 81.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 19c | 80.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 80.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 79.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 76c | 79.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 79.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 77.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…392fbacked Yes | 24c | 73.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 24c | 73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 21c | 71.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…b72ebacked Yes | 59c | 63.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…b6a4backed No | 74c | 61.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…2b9cbacked Yes | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed No | 77c | 51.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 66c | 47.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 62c | 47.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.