Fifa International · resolved market
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcbf109f755720ef4bf95c797ac0c3d2f0b484e890d25e2a7d7d2c8c565335f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 68c | 441.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 31c | 377.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…913bbacked No | 35c | 200.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc509…5ae3backed Yes | 68c | 146.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 33c | 140.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 32c | 92.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 67c | 80.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 293 | 38.2%112 W · 181 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 67.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 33c | 62.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 31c | 53.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 359 | 58.5%210 W · 149 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +27.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 33c | 30.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 359 | 54%194 W · 165 L | +20.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…d2dcbacked Yes | 66c | 17.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?this page
- Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Group" 5+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Own Goal" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.