MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabea65026e08f6bc9c362f1f4770f73a8018db28ca1f03744ea525d89b9fd294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 58c | 11,040$6,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,348.95 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 5,802$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,248.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 4,366$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 40c | 2,973$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.97 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 56c | 1,101$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.74 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 1,048$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 866$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 25c | 293.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 56c | 141.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Over | 52c | 55.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 56c | 50.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 57c | 39.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 68c | 34.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 57c | 29.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Under | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 63c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles AngelsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.