Fifa International · resolved market
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf5cdb37486a359665f1e08d80b1a066328d9f6749ee6fc9f114a7b9b58b631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 2,253$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.2 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 57c | 1,894$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.56 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Over | 76c | 495.67$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Under | 24c | 490.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 58c | 237.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over | 55c | 179.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Under | 41c | 101.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 99.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 54c | 99.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…3d2dbacked Under | 23c | 96.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…77dcbacked Under | 46c | 92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 45c | 89.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 43c | 70.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 44c | 64.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 62.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Under | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…af24backed Under | 46c | 48.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 47.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 129 | 53.5%69 W · 60 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…afc3backed Over | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 27.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5this page
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bolivia (-1.5)Scotland won
- Spread: Scotland (-1.5)Scotland won
- Spread: Scotland (-2.5)Scotland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.