Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac09df3eabde289393fad9696a27a1cb8cc5c2e6fc936b47a660e5772c3a3c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 339.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 294 | 47.6%140 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Under | 62c | 255.86$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 950 | 48.5%461 W · 489 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…8284backed Over | 45c | 253.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…ba59backed Under | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…3ca3backed Under | 61c | 204.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 311 | 50.2%156 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 39c | 204.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…0feebacked Over | 38c | 173.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 769 | 55%423 W · 346 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 45c | 108.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 421 | 43.9%185 W · 236 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Under | 58c | 103.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…439cbacked Over | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…ac8fbacked Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 634 | 48.1%305 W · 329 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…9634backed Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 43c | 48.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e8…65dbbacked Under | 57c | 44.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Over | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009c…049bbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?this page
- Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.