Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba74235888b281785f6c31489567dd9ae0f781168f14ae819ce9e1fca1c79fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Fnatic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 11,442$7,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,661.51 | 969 | 48.6%471 W · 498 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Fnatic | 41c | 11,216$4,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.15 | 387 | 35.9%139 W · 248 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…c6c0backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 7,879$4,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.98 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Fnatic | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Fnatic | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed Fnatic | 41c | 1,349$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.65 | 1,469 | 61.4%902 W · 567 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Fnatic | 32c | 1,300$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 637 | 51.2%326 W · 311 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,163$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.47 | 523 | 44.9%235 W · 288 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 1,110$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.64 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 950.5$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.65 | 167 | 60.5%101 W · 66 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fnatic | 31c | 945.35$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.05 | 655 | 44.1%289 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Fnatic | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,014 | 47.6%483 W · 531 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 647.25$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.57 | 1,004 | 54.5%547 W · 457 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 606.61$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.83 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…df55backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 533.71$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…d07fbacked Fnatic | 54c | 510$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 959 | 51.3%492 W · 467 L | +42.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 498$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.18 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Fnatic | 51c | 380$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…2737backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 367.93$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 655 | 63.2%414 W · 241 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…c175backed Fnatic | 32c | 333.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Fnatic | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 189 | 44.4%84 W · 105 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 350 | 60.3%211 W · 139 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…9bcfbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Fnatic | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Fnatic | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 219 | 53.9%118 W · 101 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Fnatic | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,456 | 13.2%192 W · 1,264 L | -111.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…602bbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 198.8$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…2d13backed Fnatic | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 519 | 52.4%272 W · 247 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fnatic | 32c | 188.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 181.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Fnatic | 32c | 181.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Fnatic | 55c | 178.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…bebdbacked Fnatic | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 441 | 53.3%235 W · 206 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…c18fbacked Fnatic | 29c | 147.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f0…0c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Fnatic | 30c | 141.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Fnatic | 63c | 130.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 120.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e9c9backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Fnatic | 32c | 107.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,143 | 38.8%444 W · 699 L | -46.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Fnatic | 31c | 105.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 304 | 37.8%115 W · 189 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Fnatic | 32c | 104.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1,056 | 50.4%532 W · 524 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Fnatic | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Fnatic | 31c | 91.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 91.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Fnatic | 31c | 91.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,182 | 44.8%530 W · 652 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Fnatic | 30c | 90.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e8…65dbbacked Fnatic | 31c | 81.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed Fnatic | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 77.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 75.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee46…faa0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 67.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -9.3wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…502ebacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 65.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fnatic | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 560 | 34.8%195 W · 365 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 51.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…52ddbacked Fnatic | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 424 | 48.8%207 W · 217 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…16e6backed Fnatic | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,428 | 38.4%548 W · 880 L | -42.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…a007backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…17f1backed Fnatic | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…3656backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Fnatic | 31c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fnatic | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 609 | 43.2%263 W · 346 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…f316backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 34.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 228 | 50.9%116 W · 112 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6e95backed Fnatic | 49c | 32.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…c0d1backed Fnatic | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 50.6%133 W · 130 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52a…6955backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6462…ad54backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…9913backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 562 | 28.6%161 W · 401 L | -32.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…58d5backed Fnatic | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 221 | 52.5%116 W · 105 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 909 | 37.3%339 W · 570 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.