South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac1e188764b5c96d00d09df01c74cc72c4327ae448abf0f426ed1acfc0c0b507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 18c | 1,833$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.52 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 17c | 801.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 53c | 296.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…0c75backed Over | 63c | 177.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 67c | 159.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 15c | 149$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f5…6210backed Over | 67c | 121.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Under | 19c | 115.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 72.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 61.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 37c | 61.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 70c | 60.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…1e19backed Over | 73c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.