TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Associação Chapecoense de Futebolof Cruzeiro EC, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4064…f741backed Cruzeiro EC50c23,733$11,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,817.41837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Cruzeiro EC53c9,477$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol48c4,712$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,467.391,94451.3%998 W · 946 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c4,062$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.6916647%78 W · 88 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c3,200$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60024855.2%137 W · 111 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20013059.2%77 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c2,008$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol48c1,972$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.891,29042.8%552 W · 738 L-2.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c1,937$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.133560.9%204 W · 131 L+18.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c1,937$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.165058%377 W · 273 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol48c1,897$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.551,30250.2%653 W · 649 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Cruzeiro EC53c1,851$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98113257.6%76 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c1,470$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.421,66851.7%863 W · 805 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70016558.2%96 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60024053.8%129 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c1,184$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59212757.5%73 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50019559.5%116 W · 79 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40028851.7%149 W · 139 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40023056.5%130 W · 100 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30024956.6%141 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30018358.5%107 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol52c569.65$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.433243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c520$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26016559.4%98 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c520$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26015857.6%91 W · 67 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2db…a60dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Cruzeiro EC52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26021844.5%97 W · 121 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c491.91$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.353,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Cruzeiro EC51c473.2$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3320022.5%45 W · 155 L-13.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c322.32$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.898,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c320$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16021358.7%125 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c312$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15621657.9%125 W · 91 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c312$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15620360.6%123 W · 80 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c280$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14022058.6%129 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c275.58$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.483,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol48c273.2$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.262,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c268.68$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.192,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol55c258.84$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6445253.1%240 W · 212 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Cruzeiro EC45c241.69$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.764443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c208$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.262,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10024257%138 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015560%93 W · 62 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10018959.3%112 W · 77 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol51c161.87$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0970055.7%390 W · 310 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8015359.5%91 W · 62 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol51c150$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7423549.4%116 W · 119 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Cruzeiro EC52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol51c140.87$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.231,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad61…0b0fbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Cruzeiro EC46c107.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e46…a831backed Cruzeiro EC57c102.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad84…1897backed Cruzeiro EC52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012439.5%49 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Cruzeiro EC52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507061.4%43 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Cruzeiro EC53c95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.352536%9 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Cruzeiro EC53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol53c85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.811,07047.4%507 W · 563 L-46.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013465.7%88 W · 46 L+13.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.55855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc338…974ebacked Cruzeiro EC54c74.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408528.2%24 W · 61 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol45c72.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7257540.2%231 W · 344 L+2.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0614…ff8bbacked Cruzeiro EC53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308555.3%47 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol47c51.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5572350.5%365 W · 358 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.619460.3%117 W · 77 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Cruzeiro EC72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.824766%31 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.612761.4%78 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd388…7ed9backed Cruzeiro EC53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1217255.2%95 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol50c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1617960.3%108 W · 71 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol46c23.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5767548%324 W · 351 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.