South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x069ad0e14610702e50cec66eabe8ba16b18b7c17a4e04b5d66579a9004a3486a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebolof Cruzeiro EC, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4064…f741backed Cruzeiro EC | 50c | 23,733$11,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,817.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Cruzeiro EC | 53c | 9,477$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 48c | 4,712$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.39 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 4,062$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.69 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 2,008$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 48c | 1,972$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.89 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 1,937$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.1 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 1,937$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.1 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 48c | 1,897$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.55 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Cruzeiro EC | 53c | 1,851$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 1,470$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.42 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 1,184$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 52c | 569.65$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…a60dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cruzeiro EC | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 491.91$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.35 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Cruzeiro EC | 51c | 473.2$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 322.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 312$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 312$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 275.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 48c | 273.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 268.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 55c | 258.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Cruzeiro EC | 45c | 241.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 208$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 51c | 161.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Cruzeiro EC | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 51c | 140.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…0b0fbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Cruzeiro EC | 46c | 107.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…a831backed Cruzeiro EC | 57c | 102.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Cruzeiro EC | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Cruzeiro EC | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Cruzeiro EC | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Cruzeiro EC | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Cruzeiro EC | 54c | 74.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 45c | 72.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Cruzeiro EC | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 47c | 51.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Cruzeiro EC | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd388…7ed9backed Cruzeiro EC | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 46c | 23.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.